Initial Pairing thoughts

River/Suhuichi: Shuichi and I didn't exchange a heap of content with each other but we definitely quite friendly with each other. I actually really disliked River on first impression which really took me aback as I hadn't had that reaction to anyone else outside of Wenya and Donald. Since then however we are getting along great and she is slowly moving up everyone's lists of who they most like. We have found some common ground over Doctor Who so I am hoping to make use of off topic to really get in a conversation with her.

Lele/Wenya: Two people I dislike. Lele was difficult to talk to in that they never replied and gave nothing back. I stopped making a huge effort but they obviously found strong common ground with Wenya due to anti 12 sentiment which Wenya cited to me as a way they ended up with friends, which means at least some people are possibly secretly harbouring discontent with 12. This is two of the three people who I know hate 12's gimmick so I imagine that is their main concern in looking for friends. I am getting very little from Wenya, however that doesn't surprise me as I talked Pikachu down from 12 and told him it was dangerous which may have changed Pikachu's tune and they could very well be harbouring discontent.

Fenrir/Zod: Strong pair. Both great communicators and Fenrir's reputation precceded him. He is obviously skilled with the challenge as well which is something to take note of. Fenrir and I didn't get a chance to talk a heap but both said we were mentioned to each other, which coincidentally seems to have come from Zod. Me and Zod were very strongly aligned with each other early. Communication has dropepd somewhat but we bonded over Frostbite and have been chatting about some of the crazy sets so I think we are still strong. Could really use a strong retouch on my end to reignite game talk if we are going to move to ally there at any point.

Star/Coco: Star is vocally not making an effort. They put no thought in to their list other than how they liked the original players of each of the slots so it is obviously someone experienced who wants to strike when the voting starts but not a minute earlier. Coco strikes me as someone along for the ride and was secretly one of my favourite people even if we didn't exchange a heap of messages. I did not want to pair with Coco but I really was hoping to be in their group. I think this is a slot to watch as I think they have given the least of their potential out of everyone so far.

Pikachu/Donald: Donald is my single least favourite person in the game. Hating the guy. He is stonewalling me, giving me absolutely nothing and every attempt to try and get anything out of him as been met with whatever you would expect a stereotypical angsty 15 year old to say to their mother in a movie. Impossible to work with. I don't think he likes Pikachu either. Ulysses managed to get out of Donald that he was surprised Pikachu picked him, as he didn't think they had a great convo, so I am fairly sure that Donald does not like Pikachu. Pikachu is a loose cannon on the other hand and may be scheming. I do not want to be on their bad side so I am still trying to work with Donald but I am worried that Donald really dislikes me as much as I dislike them. Not sure why.

Stitch/Ted: Stitch wants to work with me. Gilly wants to work with Ted. A Natural alliance partnership the more I think about it. Ted was the person I had the most messages with at the end of challenge 1, so we really connected and had some great banter. I was candid with him and I think he appreciated it. Stitch is coming in to the game and I definitely lended some emotional support when they felt they weren't connecting with some slots how they wanted to. I feel very confident that they like us every bit as much as we like them.

Susan/12: This is an interesting pair where I think we may have been hurt by our groupings. Gilly was definitely closer to Susan than I was, and I was definitely closer to 12 than Gilly was. Susan and I get along just fine, however she has been solid socially and therefore already has a wealth of strong connections that I am up against and it will take some effort to crack in to her top people. We get along great but there's a history bias at play here I feel. Not an immediate threat, but we could end up on opposite sides of alliances we are trying to set up with the same people stuck in the middle.

Ulysses/Beetlejuice: Beetlejuice and I stayed off topic and it was ok, not great but ok. Ulysses I started messaging late, however we both came highly recommended to each other and I think we have blossomed quite well. He is comfortable with me as we have been sharing music tastes, he rickrolled me, and is actually just someone I fell I would be friends with outside the game. These are people I am pretty keen to work with as I feel like Beetlejuice likely gives as much as he gets, so may not be on everyone's radar. Certainly a strong pair to be allied with, especially with Beetlejuice playing in the the game.

Tracer/Birdo: Tracer and I aren't close, but Tracer is close with a lot of the people I am close with. We get along and joke a little but she is definitely right on the fringe of players I like, and Birdo has a negative general opinion from the people i have talked to. She was definitely role playing hard and not everyone likes that. Stitch really didn't like Birdo so they are likely to be brought up as a target with our initial alliance ideas.

Shadow/Montreal: Across both people in this pairing I have sent 4 messages, and gotten 1 back. From Shadow. No one seems to have heard from Montreal and he is Ulysses top pick for first cull afaik. Point to note, Donald said he has one(1) message from Montreal. So he is ignoring me, but is generally ignoring everyone as well.

Tetra/Harbinger: I messaged Tetra late, but she was active. Similar boat to Susan for me. Everyone is annoyed at Harbinger. He is obviously super active with Tetra as his posts have SPIKED HARD since the pairing went out, but none of it is in communal forums. I don't think we can discount this pair but I am not privy to anything.

So, first immediate thoughts: The Donald/Pikachu pair sounds like a hot mess. I didn't think they were on great terms, but Donald hating Pikachu, and from what I've heard, Pikachu sounding down about his partner's activity (to the point of being kinda resigned about going to the elimination challenge) is just rough. I'm really not sure what to do about them now. I guess just point them in a direction and stand back; I think one way or another that's likely to explode. Heck, I could see them almost wanting to go to the eliminator challenge if it's that bad. The survivor will at least have a partner they dislike less.

Beetlejuice has jumped from bottom end of my preference list to solidly in the middle. He's much better than I immediately gave him credit for, and Ulysses is of course at the top. I sounded them out, and it sounds like that pair likes the Ted Cruz/Stitch pair more than the other potential allies, so I think a three pair alliance of us, Ted/Stich, and Ulysses/Beetlejuice is definitely the way to go for our core.

The pairs I don't really like are Lele/Weyna and to a lesser extent Star/Coco. Weyna being active concerns me since I never heard anything from him, Lele doesn't talk to me in any meaningful detail, and it's kinda the same thing with Star/Coco. Never heard from Star, and Coco has shown decent PM ability, but doesn't talk much to me. Shadow/Montreal I think are just the inactive easy boot pair at this point. Birdo/Tracer are kind of on the edge; Birdo is not a good PM'er, Tracer is at least decent, but was also more towards the middle of my preference list than the top.

I do agree that a Susan/12 alliance might have happened pretty naturally if the groups were flipped. I think they're still good to talk to, and I'll admit 12's gimmick has gotten easier to read with time. Fenrir/Zod... I do kind of like them, but there's some weird way in which they stand out as threats? I can't really put my finger on why, but I feel both like they're good, but also that I'm not the one they're most concerned about showing off their best game to. It's hard for me to really put my finger on it. I want to work with them, but I'm a little wary, and also think it might be good for us to let them be seen as more of a leader. I think that's a role they'd claim/fall into pretty naturally, and it might make them a target for whenever someone wins immunity with the goal of making BIG MOVES (TM).

River, Shuichi, and Tetra all define middle of the road for me. Not great, not terrible, not worth targeting or making core allies. Still worth talking to and trying to work with, but not really power players. And Harbinger might just be invisible.

Oh wow. Well, I guess that makes that decision easy. Either for the immunity winner if they pick District 5, or for the vote if they don't. That's pretty crazy.